Time, tenacity, trust needed before recovery, ULI conference hears

Even if green shoots of recovery have been heralded by politicians and commentators in recent weeks, the consensus at the recent London conference of the Urban Land Institute was that most banks remain in paralysis and that further corporate pain, decreasing values and downward pressures on rents are to be expected before a global recovery can begin. The overriding message from the ULI trends conference, which drew more than 200 real estate and finance leaders from several countries, was that the real estate industry will need to focus on three long-term factors: time, tenacity and the rebuilding of trust. Keynote speaker Bridget Rosewell, Greater London Authority chief economist, predicted, "a nasty and long-lasting hangover". She said the cause of the recession was not solely attributable to the recklessness of banks, and contended - based on UK, German, US and Japanese economic data - that the downturn was driven by high commodity costs rather than the credit crisis. Hypo Real Estate Supervisory Board member Bernd Knobloch said tougher government scrutiny might help spur investor confidence. Panels also addressed debt, equity, insolvency, restructuring and pan-European investment opportunities.